Tajne rewelacje Guardiana o ropie

Your ads will be inserted here by

Easy Plugin for AdSense.

Please go to the plugin admin page to
Paste your ad code OR
Suppress this ad slot.

Jak dziś powszechnie wiadomo Wikileaks jest niekwestionowanym źródłem informacji o świecie. Na wyrywkowych depeszach z rozmów dyplomatów opierają się dziś artykuły w gazetach. Nie inaczej jest z ropą. Wtorkowy Guardian wyszperał z Wikileaks depesze, która mówi:

WikiLeaks cables: Saudi Arabia cannot pump enough oil to keep a lid on pricesUS diplomat convinced by Saudi expert that reserves of world’s biggest oil exporter have been overstated by nearly 40%

Krótko mówiąc… Arabia Saudyjska wkrótce przestanie być swing producer’em mającym wpływ na ceny rynkowe i że jej rezerwy są przeszacowane o 40%.

Yahoo podaje szersze nagłówki i piszę wręcz wprost, że Arabom kończy się ropa naftowa:

WikiLeaks: Saudis running out of oil

Istotnie kończy już od pierwszej wydobytej baryłki 😉

Doniesienia rzeczywiście byłby dość istotne, gdyby były świeże; nigdzie nie publikowane. Problem z tym, że informator z depeszy publikowanej przez Wikileaks to niejaki Sadad Al Husseini. Postać kiedyś bardzo wysoko postawiona w Saudyjskiej firmie wydobywczej ARAMCO, a osobom interesującym się tematem peakoil bardzo dobrze znana. Nie potrzeba wikileaks żeby dotrzeć do jego wypowiedzi sprzed lat, nawet sprzed tej depeszy. Weźmy pierwsze z brzegu New York Times z 2005 roku:

A senior Saudi oil geologist has stated to the New York Times that he believes Saudi oil will peak at about 12.5 to 15 million barrels a day. After that point, there can be no more growth in sour supply no matter what the world demands!

„When I asked whether the kingdom could produce 20 million barrels a day — about twice what it is producing today from fields that may be past their prime — Husseini paused for a second or two. It wasn’t clear if he was taking a moment to figure out the answer or if he needed a moment to decide if he should utter it. He finally replied with a single word: No.”

Once Saudi Arabia have peaked, then that’s it — the world has peaked. There will be no more economic growth of the oil dependent variety. Indeed, current industrys such as airlines will start to go broke.

Nieprawdaż, że wypowiedź znacznie „groźniejsza” od tej z przeklejanej po dziejeszych mediach depeszy?

Weźmy Energy Bulletin i jego wypowiedź z 2005 roku

Therefore my answer is: under the current circumstances and outlook, oil is likely to peak at a 95 mmbd plateau by 2015 and can then be sustained well beyond 2020 at increasing real oil prices.

Weźmy Dow Jones Newswires z 2004 roku

The former head of Saudi Arabian Oil Co.’s (SOI.YY) oil
exploration Wednesday sharply criticized U.S. government oil supply
projections.

“The whole industry laughs at it,” said Sadad Al-Husseini, former executive
vice president of exploration and production at Aramco, the world’s biggest oil
company.

The Energy Information Agency, statistical arm of the U.S. Department of
Energy, projects crude from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries
oil will increase 90% in 20 years and that demand for Saudi oil will jump 137%,
to about 22 million barrels day.

Saudi Arabia’s own models forecast top production for the same time at a much
lower 15 million b/d. Saudi Arabia now produces some 9.5 million b/d.

Your ads will be inserted here by

Easy Plugin for AdSense.

Please go to the plugin admin page to
Paste your ad code OR
Suppress this ad slot.

“They are perhaps unaware of how unrealistic these numbers are,” Al-Husseini
said.

OPEC supplies half of the world’s oil exports.

The EIA’s predictions assume very low oil prices. Al-Husseini said oil will
be much more expensive, encouraging greater fuel economy and the development of
alternative fuels that will shrink reliance on oil.

He also questioned U.S. projections on future oil finds and said declining
production in existing fields will increase.

“Should we be worried? Yes,” he said.

Billions of barrels of oil calculated to be part of world reserves by the
U.S. government include nearly unusable pitch, he said.

Al-Husseini said he wanted to call their figures to task because they shape
major government policy decision more than any other agency’s data.

Także nic nowego, to wszystko już było. Z takich doniesień zrobić rewelacje mogę tylko ludzie nie siedzący w temacie. A siedzieć w temacie skoro pracują w gazetach i mają za to płacone żeby wiedzieć o czym piszą!

Dalej Husseini piszę o przeszacowanych rezerwach o 40 procent. Ale jakich rezerwach? O ropie w ziemi, a nie ropie nadającej się do wydobycia. Rigzone podaje za wypowiedzią al Husseinieego:

Cables quoted by U.K. newspaper the Guardian said al-Husseini had in 2007 challenged figures given by the current Saudi Aramco exploration head that reserves were 716 billion barrels and would rise to 900 billion barrels in 20 years. The comments by al-Husseini would mean that Saudi Arabia’s oil reserves were 40% less than reported, the newspaper had said.

But al-Husseini said he only challenged the 900 billion barrels projection, which is not an officially published figure, and was correcting a misapprehension that the 716 billion barrels figure given as Saudi oil in place was the same as the country’s actual reserves.

„What I’m disputing (in the leaked cable) is the 900 billion barrels figure, and correcting the fact that the 716 billion barrel figure is oil in place, not reserves,” he told Dow Jones. „If you look at Aramco’s report on reserves, it says 260 billion barrels. If you say this figure is 700 billion barrels, you’re overstating it.”

To tak trochę jak z gazem łupkowym w Polsce i spieraniem się ile go jest. 3 mld? 5 mld? Nie ważne ile go jest, ważne ile możesz wydobyć.

Husseini oczywiście od lat mówi kluczową sprawę dla całego raportowania OPEC, że rezerwy są po prostu sztuczne i politycznie zawyżane. Nie ukrywa tego i mówi publicznie o czym podaje sam Rigzone:

In the past al-Husseini, who retired at the end of 2003, has also said proven reserves in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries are inflated by 300 billion barrels.

He told Dow Jones that estimate did not include Saudi Arabia, however.

„Saudi Aramco and Saudi Arabia have a very professional approach to reserves information, so the reserves they publish are credible,” he said. „But other OPEC countries include probable and potential resources and call them reserves.”

Co oczywiście odpowiada znanej tabelce z rezerwami OPEC: